厦门大学宏观经济研究中心工作简报2016年第1

(总第45期)

 

 

一、学术活动报告

1225日,厦门大学宏观经济研究中心与新华社《经济参考报》联合主办的“中国宏观经济高层研讨会暨中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM2016年春季预测发布会”在北京举行,发布了今明两年中国宏观经济主要指标的预测及相关政策模拟结果,并提出政策建议。发布预测报告之后,还举行了主题为“需求结构转换和供给结构改革”的“2016年中国宏观经济高层研讨会”教育部、国务院发展研究中心、中国社会科学院、中国建设银行、包商银行、福建省人民政府发展研究中心、人民出版社、经济科学出版社等单位的领导、专家学者近百人参加了会议。

2225,宏观经济研究中心与新华社《经济参考报》还联合发布了《2016年中国宏观经济形势与政策问卷调查报告》。这一调查始于20138月,每年进行两次,调查报告与《中国宏观经济预测与分析报告》同步发布。迄今已发布了六次。本次问卷共设计了与当前中国宏观经济运行和政策走势直接相关的20个问题,涉及2016年世界经济形势、2016年中国宏观经济主要指标的预测、2016年中国宏观经济政策的走势以及中国供给侧结构性改革等问题的最新认识和判断等四大类,共有121位海内外经济学家接受了问卷调查。

334日,经专家评审、社会公示并报全国哲学社会科学规划领导小组批准,全国社科规划办公布了“研究阐释党的十八届五中全会精神”国家社科基金重大项目立项名单。厦门大学宏观经济研究中心主任李文溥教授为首席专家申报的《需求结构转换背景下提高消费对经济增长贡献研究》获得立项。此次是李文溥教授作为首席专家继2009年中标国家社科基金重大项目《扩大国内需求的宏观经济政策研究》顺利结题之后,再次中标国家社科基金重大课题,也是2009年以来宏观经济研究中心专任教师中标的第5项国家级重大项目。其他3项国家级重大项目分别是:2013年,龚敏教授作为首席专家中标国家社科基金重大项目;2014年,林致远教授作为首席专家中标教育部哲学社科研究课题重大攻关项目;2015年,卢盛荣教授作为首席专家中标教育部哲学社科研究课题重大攻关项目。

4310日下午,教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地――厦门大学宏观经济研究中心(CMR) Seminar Series (2016) 在经济楼A501会议室如期开讲,中心王燕武副教授、余长林副教授分别基于中心225日在京召开的“2016中国宏观经济高层研讨会暨‘中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)春季预测发布会’”内容,进行了以“中国宏观经济预测与分析”和“中国宏观经济形势与政策问卷调查报告”为主题的汇报。

5322日下午,教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地――厦门大学宏观经济研究中心(CMR) Seminar Series (2016) 第三讲在经济楼A501会议室如期举行,中心副主任林致远教授就其最新研究成果《跨越“中等收入陷阱”:基于人力资本视角的考察》进行了汇报。

645日下午,教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地――厦门大学宏观经济研究中心(CMR) Seminar Series (2016) 第四讲在经济楼A501举行,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员、学术期刊创新工程总编辑,中国社会科学院研究生院教授、财经系主任杨志勇以“大国财政之谜:理解中国财政”为题,从理解中国财政、大国财政演变的逻辑、大国财政的走向等三个方面进行梳理和探讨,并且阐明中国财政改革面临的阻力和突围的方向。

 

二、重大项目进展情况报告

重大项目之一:人口老龄化、劳动力市场变化与经济可持续增长(项目负责人:陈贵富,项目批准号: 12JJD790001

本课题按照研究计划进行,已提交最终报告撰写和结项审批材料,阶段性成果主要有:

 

重大项目之二:开放经济条件下资源环境约束强化、技术进步与中国经济增长效率(项目负责人:彭水军,项目批准号: 12JJD790027

本课题按照研究计划进行,本阶段在前期研究的基础上,继续推进项目研究,阶段性成果主要有:

阶段性成果之一:《贸易差额、污染贸易条件如何影响中国贸易内涵碳“顺差”

——基于多国投入产出模型的分析》(彭水军、张文城,《国际商务研究》2016年第1期(约稿,封面文章))

内容摘要:本文基于多国投入产出模型测算了1995-2005年中国与32个贸易伙伴的贸易内涵碳差额和污染贸易条件,并对其进行分解。结果表明,研究期间中国是贸易内涵碳“顺差”国,“顺差”在2000-2005年期间出现大幅提高。中国贸易内涵碳“顺差”绝大部分是中国较高的污染贸易条件所致,但贸易顺差的推动作用也在增强。对污染贸易条件的分解进一步发现,中国贸易内涵碳“顺差”主要缘于中国与其他国家(地区)的生产技术差异,但1995-2000年期间中国生产技术呈现出显著的“低碳化”改进,有效改善了污染贸易条件,从而减少了贸易内涵碳“顺差”。此外,该期间中国出口结构比进口结构相对清洁,也小幅降低了贸易内涵碳“顺差”。

阶段性成果之二:《国际贸易与气候变化问题:一个文献综述》,(彭水军、张文城,《世界经济》2016年第2期)

内容摘要:国际贸易和气候变化是关系人类发展和福祉的两个重要议题。本文对国际贸易与气候变化这一研究领域的文献作一个综述,着重从“国际贸易对气候变化的影响”、“气候变化对国际贸易的潜在冲击和影响”以及“气候保护与贸易自由化的冲突和协调机制”三方面对20世纪90年代以来的相关文献进行归纳和评述,指出了现有研究不足以及未来研究拓展的方向。

 

重大项目之三:经济增长与区域经济差异——人力资本的视角(项目负责人:刘榆,项目批准号:13JJD790025

本课题按照研究计划进行,本阶段在前期研究的基础上,继续推进项目研究,本阶段主要是总结以往成果,分析下一阶段研究重点,暂无阶段性成果。

 

重大项目之四:矫正要素比价扭曲,推进经济发展方式转变问题研究(项目负责人:龚敏,项目批准号:13JJD790026

本课题按照研究计划进行,本阶段在前期研究的基础上,继续推进项目研究,阶段性成果主要有:

阶段性成果之一:《20162017年中国宏观经济预测与分析》(厦门大学中国季度宏观经济模型课题组,《厦门大学学报(哲社版)》已接受)

 

重大项目之五:发展服务经济的经济发展及结构转换效应研究(项目负责人:李文溥,项目批准号:14JJD790007

本课题按照研究计划进行,本阶段在前期研究的基础上,继续推进项目研究,阶段性成果主要有:

阶段性成果之一:《China's Macroeconomic Outlook, September 2016》(李文溥等,施普林格出版社,201512月)

内容摘要:In the first half of 2015, the slowdown of investment growth rate in the mining industry, manufacturing industry and real estate sector suppressed the overall investment growth rate directly. Due to the uncertainty of the global market, the export also grew sluggishly. Moreover, the expansion of consumption demand was hindered by the decline of the growth rate of urban and rural residential real income to some extent. With downward pressure on economic growth, the cumulative growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) reached 7.0%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points over the previous year, reaching its nadir since 2000.

Along with the slowdown of economic growth, problems arise. First, with the loose monetary policy over the first half of 2015, the sharp decline of private investment growth reflected that the efficiency of allocating credit resources in the financial sector is poor and the monetary policy transmission channels are somehow    inefficient. Secondly, the deflation in the industrial sector has been lasting for almost four years, enlarging the regional inequality of economy and society. Thirdly, owing to the decline of economic growth, the residential income growth slowed down and the fiscal revenue growth declined sharply. These factors will further prevent the economy from growing rapidly in the short term. Lastly, the share of the tertiary industry in GDP has been rising gradually, which kept employment  rate from declining to some degree. However, the labor productivity in the tertiary industry has been lower than that of the secondary industry for a long time. If China want to achieve a steady potential growth in the next ten years, it was crucial to improve the labor productivity in the tertiary industry while adjusting the economic structure.

Though the downward pressure on economic growth remained, the adjustments of the economic structures began to take effect, and the economy was growing stably after hitting the bottom. Firstly, the share of the tertiary industry in the GDP kept growing, which helped to alleviate the pressure of unemployment caused by economic downturn. Secondly, while the investment growth rate declined, the structure of investment was getting optimized. On one hand, among all the investments, the shares of investment in the primary and the tertiary industry were increasing little by little, while that in the secondary industry was gradually shrinking. On the other hand, the share of the private investment was growing, and the structure of investment was getting optimized. Thirdly, high-tech industry was booming, and its share in the whole industry was growing, too. Lastly, new progress in energy saving had been made. These facts showed that China's economy was adapting to the changes of the market environment and new momentums and space for economic development were emerging.

In 2015, based on the forecast by CQMM, it is very possible for China’s GDP to achieve the targeted growth rate of 7%, despite of the downward economic pressure. We anticipate that the economic growth rate will reach around 7.10%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points over the previous year. The CPI will be 1.62%, indicating a low level of inflation. The gross export calculated by current USD dollar is expected to increase by 1.87%, a decline of 3.7 percentage points over the previous year. The gross import growth rate may fall to -12.24%, a significant drop of 12.97 percentage points over the previous year. The net export is about to contribute 2.47% of the GDP. The growth in fixed assets investment will remain sluggish, with the anticipation that urban fixed assets investment will increase by 11.21% calculated by current price, a decline of 3.99 percentage points over the previous year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods calculated by current price is going to increase by 10.07%, a slight drop of 1.90 percentage points over the previous year.

With the continuous advance of China's market-oriented reform, private investment is playing an important role in stabilizing investment growth and improving investment efficiency, and thereby helping the economy to grow steadily. The private investment has grown faster than the total fixed assets investment since 2012. Besides, the private investment was adjusting its structure following the changes of the macro environment and the economic transition. The share of private investment in the primary and the tertiary industry grew rapidly, and was also rising sharply in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing industry. The fast growth and the optimizing structure of private investment were promoting the upgrade and transformation of industrial structure greatly.

However, with the loose monetary policy in the first half of 2015, the private investment growth was declining sharply. In contrast, the investment from state-owned enterprises kept growing steadily, and investment from enterprises funded by Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan started to rise. The allocation of credit resources based on indirect financing is still not conducive to the expansion of private investment demand.

In private sector, the problem of “difficult financing, expensive financing” remains. Although the share of equity financing in the first half year has increased significantly, its size was still limited. The channels of direct financing were restricted. The channels of indirect financing are barely strong enough to support the expansion of the private investment demand, although the monetary policy has ensured sufficient interbank liquidity and low cost of financing.

It was well-known that resource allocation in the financial sectors was lack of efficiency and not beneficial for the non-state-owned enterprises. Since 2014, China has excised targeted monetary expansion policies, which are only able to help agricultural and small businesses. They cannot essentially improve the efficiency of allocating credit resource. We believe that interest rate liberalization is the only way to improve the efficiency of credit resource allocation, so that the market can satisfy the demand for the expansion of private investment, improve the investment efficiency, and promote the economic growth.

 In simulations, CQMM made the following assumptions: during the three years from 2012 to 2014, the ceiling of the deposit interest rate had been canceled so that the deposit-loan interest margin would have been narrowed. For example, the real interest margin was 3.06 percentage points in 2012. CQMM assumed that it had become 1.53 percentage points over the three years due to interest rate liberalization. It can be found that the loan interest rate would not have increased by much. On one hand, small interest margin would depress the investment growth. Therefore, the economic growth would have been affected slightly. On the other hand, the increase of deposit rate could have boosted consumption through the income effect, followed by a higher share of consumption in the GDP. What’s more, a rise of the deposit rate would have benefited rural residents more in terms of income growth than urban residents, helping to narrow the urban-rural income gap. As a consequence, under the condition that the systematic risks get controlled, the interest rate liberalization on the economy would be positive, because the advantages would far overweigh its disadvantages.

During the period of the Thirteenth Five-year Plan (2016-2020), the realization of potential economic growth will depend much on the improvement of labor productivity and the speed up of private real income During this period, the reform of the mixed-ownership economy will promote private investment, integrate social resources more efficiently and boost the economy. The strategies of "Made in China 2050" and the new measures of regional planning will benefit the labor productivity in manufacturing. The acceleration of interest rate liberalization and the optimization of capital market will improve the efficiency of allocating financial resource. The ‘Internet Plus’ will improve the productivity in the tertiary industry. At the same time, items required government review and approval are getting cut, which will further stimulate China’s growth potential, creating advantageous conditions for the development in the next five or ten years and thus avoid the middle-income trap.

Based on the production function, the research team forecasts that the annual potential growth rate will reach 6.91% in 2015 and will be around 6.79% in average during 2016-2020. Although it is a relative high speed, it can be further increased through continuing economic structure optimization. First, if the reform of the mixed-ownership succeeds in expanding private investment and its share in total investment reaches 34.1% each year, an increase of one percentage point over the previous year, and the annual potential growth rate will be 6.82% in average, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the benchmark model. Secondly, if we invest more in the tertiary industry, increasing its share in the total investment increase to 70.0% by 2020 from 56.2% in 2014, and if the productivity of the tertiary industry relative to the secondary industry can be increased by 5% each year, then the economic potential growth rate will reach 6.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the benchmark model for each year. Lastly, if the average years of education of an employee can be increased to 11.2 years in 2020 from 9.89 years in 2014, then the potential growth rate can reach 7.13%, 0.34 percentage points higher that the baseline model.

 After investigating the potential growth rate for the next two years, we find that the economic growth trend is not too pessimistic, though China’s economy will still face the uncertainty of global market, the pressure of domestic production overcapacity in manufacturing industry and excess supply of real estate sector. There is little probability that the economic growth rate will decline dramatically. Taking 7% as the target of economic growth, we should optimize economic structure with constant and flexible policies and thus create favorable environment for future development.

During the next several years, investment expansion will still play an important role in promoting economic development. However,only by expanding the private investment can we improve the investment efficiency. Therefore, as for the monetary policy, we should insist on the in financial reform and promote multiple competitions while promoting the interest rate liberalization with the systematic risks getting controlled. What is more, the efficiency of resource allocation should be improved and the demand for the expansion of emerging industries and the private investment should be satisfied.

For the fiscal policy, it is important to continue corporate tax reduction to make sure that the private investment increases steadily. More importantly, we must promote the reform of mixed-ownership so as to stimulate the economy by integrating social resources, and it is necessary to accelerate the reform of the government administration in the service sector and open its investment fields, especially to develop the industries, which can satisfy basic demands of the people.

In recent years, the share of the tertiary industry in the GDP has been gradually rising, which ensured a stable employment to some extent. However, the labor productivity is still lower in the tertiary industry than in the secondary industry. This is why the economic growth slows down though the share of the tertiary industry climbing up. Therefore, it becomes a key issue to promote the share of modern service industry and the efficiency of the financial sector so that we can improve the productivity of the tertiary industry, and thus make sure that the potential growth rate of the GDP can be kept at a stable level. 

Finally, improving the labor productivity is the most essential way to guarantee that urban and rural residential income grows rapidly. At the same time, only the rapid growth of the residential income can effectively help to accumulate human capital and improve the labor productivity. What’s more, the improvement of labor productivity will in turn accelerate private income growth and human capital expansion, creating favorable conditions for the development of economy, the adjustment of economic structure, and the transformation of growth pattern.

 

重大项目之六:集聚、结构转变与经济增长:基于我国城市的分析(项目负责人:邵宜航,项目批准号:14JJD790015

本课题按照研究计划进行,本阶段在前期研究的基础上,继续推进项目研究,阶段性成果主要有:

阶段性成果之一:《劳动力流动与收入差距演变:基于我国城市的理论与实证》(邵宜航、汪宇娟、刘雅南,《经济学家》2016年第1期)

内容摘要:劳动力流动对城市内部收入差距的影响可分为结构效应和总量效应。结构效应考察劳动力流动人口的结构性差异对不同阶层工资收入的差异性影响。总量效应则考虑劳动力流入导致的住房需求总量增加可能产生的相应阶层的财产性收入的变化。本文的理论分析与基于我国城市数据的计量检验表明:由于流动劳动力的整体受教育水平较低,目前我国劳动力流动仍然会扩大城市内部收入差距;而当流动劳动力中接受高等教育的比例超过一半时,劳动力流动则可能缩小城市内部收入差距。

 

重大项目之七:集聚经济下的中国地方政府财税行为研究(项目负责人:陈建宝,项目批准号:15JJD790029

本课题按照研究计划进行,本阶段在前期研究的基础上,继续推进项目研究,阶段性成果主要有:

阶段性成果之一: 《地方利益主体博弈下的资源禀赋与公共品供给》(陈建宝、乔宁宁,《经济学(季刊)》,2016年第2期)

内容摘要:本文以资源禀赋为切入点,首先建立了一个地方政府和民间两个利益主体争取资源收益的两阶段博弈模型,从理论上推导出不同条件下资源禀赋与地方公共品供给之间的异质性特征;其次,基于2003-2008年中国地级市数据,首次采用最新的半参数空间滞后回归模型进行实证检验。结果表明:我国地区资源禀赋与不同类型公共品供给之间存在显著的非线性影响机制;同时,资源禀赋对公共品供给的整体影响与地方经济发展水平之间体现出一定的正相关性特点。

阶段性成果之二:《随机效应变系数空间滞后面板模型的估计》(陈建宝、孙林,工作论文)

内容摘要:具有良好可读性和稳健性的变系数模型在经济学领域应用广泛。本文提出了一种全新的随机效应变系数空间滞后面板模型,构建了该模型的截面极大似然估计方法,证明了其估计量的一致性和渐近正态性,Monte Carlo模拟研究表明该估计方法在小样本情况下的表现依然效果良好。