厦门大学宏观经济研究中心工作简报2022年第3期
（总第71期）
一、学术活动报告
1、2022年7月16-22日，宏观经济研究中心助理教授张钧南受邀线上参加了由经济理论前沿协会（Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory, SAET）主办、由澳大利亚国立大学承办的“第21届经济理论前沿协会年度会议（The 21st Annual SAET Conference）”，并在会上以“Asset Pricing Models with Preference Shocks: Existence and Uniqueness”为题进行演讲报告。报告指出，介绍了在偏好冲击与递归效用下资产价格存在的条件，并指出其与跨期替代弹性的紧密联系。
二、重大项目进展情况报告
重大项目之一：开放经济条件下资源环境约束强化、技术进步与中国经济增长效率（项目负责人：彭水军，项目批准号：12JJD790027）
本课题按照研究计划进行，近期将撰写最终报告和结项审批材料，暂无阶段性成果。
重大项目之二：集聚经济下的中国地方政府财税行为研究（项目负责人：陈建宝，项目批准号：15JJD790029）
阶段性成果之一：《How to reduce PM 2.5? Perspective from a spatial autoregressive threshold panel model》（Fen Li, Jianbao Chen*, Hao Chen*, Zhuyao Zhuo，《Ecological Indicators》 2022年143期。）
内容摘要：Reducing PM2.5 is an important way to ameliorate air quality. Research on driving factors of PM2.5 can provide empirical support for controlling cross-regional linkage air pollution. In this paper, we first propose a new spatial autoregressive threshold panel model and its estimation method, and then apply this methodology to study influencing elements of PM2.5 using the panel data of China during 2000-2019. The results reveal that China's provincial PM2.5 has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, and its major driving factors have significant two regimes threshold characteristic when economic development is divided into low and high levels. Specifically, (1) PM2.5 concentration in adjacent provinces increases 1% can lead to that in observing province increases 0.7741%. (2) The positive impacts of population size, energy structure and humidity on PM2.5 are significant at low economic level, and become not significant at high economic level. (3) The influence of industrialization, economic development, energy intensity, urbanization and wind speed on PM2.5 in two regimes is significantly positive, and elasticity coefficients of industrialization and economic development decrease with improvement of economic level while energy intensity, urbanization and wind speed are on the contrary. (4) The influence of possession of civil vehicles on PM2.5 changes from negative to positive as economic level increases. (5) Temperature has no significant effect on PM2.5 concentration. (6) The influence of precipitation on PM2.5 is significantly positive in regime II and not significant in regime I. Therefore, local governments should strengthen cooperation with adjacent provinces and jointly adopt effective measures to cut down on PM2.5 pollution. The provinces with low economic level should accelerate economic transformation, improve industrial production efficiency, optimize energy structure, and advocate green and low-carbon lifestyle. The provinces with high economic level need to further expand consumer demand, actively develop tertiary industries, promote new energy vehicles and vigorously develop public transport.
重大项目之三：矫正要素配置扭曲与促进经济有效增长（项目负责人：柏培文，项目批准号：16JJD790031）
本课题按照研究计划进行，已经完成结题。
重大项目之四：中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）的再拓展（项目负责人：龚敏，项目批准号：17JJD790014）
本课题按照研究计划进行，阶段性成果主要有：
阶段性成果之一：《2022-2023年中国宏观经济预测更新》（CQMM课题组，工作论文）
内容摘要：2022年下半年，中国经济可能面临美欧经济减速、房地产下行、疫情扰动等多重风险，制造业投资和基建投资有望稳步增长，对经济形成重要支撑。基于中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）的更新预测表明，2022年中国GDP增速预计为4.14%，较春季预测下降1.35个百分点；2023年GDP增速反弹至6.67%。2022年，CPI预计上涨1.54%，涨幅比春季预测下调0.29个百分点，2023年，CPI增速预计为1.47%。另外，本文还模拟了不同情景下美欧经济减速对中国经济的影响。结果发现：2022-2023年，美欧经济出现深度衰退的可能性不大，并且美国经济增长的不确定性要高于欧元区。而在美欧经济温和减速的前提下，其对中国经济增长的影响有限，难以造成大幅度冲击。结构方面，中国出口和制造业投资受美欧经济减速的影响相对较大。尤其是出口增速，在本就预期为负值的情况下，很可能会加速下跌，降幅翻倍。同时，和财政政策相比，货币政策在应对美欧经济减速方面的操作空间更大。
阶段性成果之二：《2022年我国宏观经济分析与预测更新》（CQMM课题组，咨询报告）
重大项目之五：深化财税体制改革与促进中国经济平稳增长研究（项目负责人：林致远，项目批准号：18JJD790007）
本课题按照研究计划进行，阶段性成果主要有：
阶段性成果之一：《政府投资范围的重新界定》（作者，林致远，工作论文）
内容摘要：当前政府投资概念所界定的资金来源主体过于狭窄，资金投向领域过于笼统。两大问题的存在，导致现行的《政府投资条例》难以对政府-社会资本合作、混合所有制改革等重大政策实践产生启示和引导作用。为此，有必要将国有企业投资纳入政府投资的范畴，同时，从竞争性角度入手，对政府投资的领域做进一步的明确划分。
重大项目之六：中国经济长期增长潜力的研究（项目负责人：卢盛荣，项目批准号：18JJD790008）
本课题按照研究计划进行，阶段性成果主要有：
阶段性成果之一：《Efects of ICT difusion on environmental pollution: analysis of industrial reallocation efects in China》（作者：朱敏龄、卢盛荣，《Environmental Science and Pollution Research》2022年第8期）
内容摘要：The development of information and communication technology (ICT) has brought about fundamental changes in social progress worldwide. Using panel data from 288 Chinese cities for the period from 1999 to 2019, this study evaluates the efect of the pilot Broadband China Strategy (BCS) program on environmental pollution. We fnd that BCS signifcantly reduces environmental pollution, and that this efect is stronger in eastern China and in Chinese cities with higher fnancial progress or broadband development. Interestingly, the negative efect of BCS on environmental pollution decreases with the improvement of human capital in the cities. We further discuss industrial efciency and reallocation mechanisms and ascertain that BCS afects environmental pollution in pilot cities not only through the efciency mechanism as established in the existing literature but also through the industrial scale change and labor transfer between diferent industries, which we refer to as the industrial reallocation mechanism in this study. Specifcally, via the industrial efciency and reallocation mechanisms, the implementation of the BCS increases the scale and efciency of the primary and tertiary industries but decreases the scale and efciency of the secondary industry. This reduction in the secondary industry results in a decline in environmental pollution. It indicates that promoting the balanced development of a country’s ICT infrastructure and pushing forward ICT difusion can help alleviate environmental pollution by industrial reallocation and efciency improvement, especially in nations with signifcant regional economic and technological diferences.
重大项目之七：中国跨入高收入经济体的增长动力研究（项目负责人：李文溥，项目批准号：19JJD790009）
本课题按照研究计划进行，本季度暂无阶段性成果。
