厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院宏观经济研究中心

“宏观与发展经济学前沿讲座”

（第3期）

报告题目

Credit Condition, Inflation and Unemployment

主讲嘉宾

Professor Chao Gu

University of Missouri

报告摘要

We study the effects of the firm’s credit condition on labor market performance and the relationship between expected inflation and unemployment in a new monetarist model. Better credit condition has a positive impact on the labor market as firms save on financing cost, improve profitability, and create more vacancies. Inflation affects unemployment through two opposing channels. First, inflation increases the firm’s financing cost, which discourages job creation and increases unemployment. Second, inflation lowers wages because unemployed workers carry higher real balances and suffer more from inflation compared to employed workers. This encourages job creation. The overall effect of inflation on employment can be positive or negative and depends crucially on the firm’s credit condition. We calibrate the model to match U.S. data before the great recession. The calibrated model suggests a small welfare cost of inflation and a downward-sloping Phillips curve with a flexible wage setting. We find that the firm’s credit condition is as important as the nominal interest rate to understand the unemployment movement.

报告时间

2023年03月10日（周五），10:00-11:30

地 点

厦门大学经济楼N302